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Document 2549
DOCN M94A2549
TI Estimating the magnitude of three epidemics: infection, disease and
mortality in Mexico.
DT 9412
AU Valdespino JL; Garcia ML; del Rio A; Salcedo A; Magis C; Mora JL;
Sepulveda J; INDRE, SCD, Secretariat of Health, Mexico.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):279 (abstract no. PC0036). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370026
AB OBJECTIVE. To estimate the magnitude of prevalence of infection, disease
and death due to HIV in Mexico. METHODS. Analysis of the National AIDS
Registry and HIV Laboratory Network. RESULTS. Up to Dec. 1993, 17,387
AIDS cases have been notified. Estimation of the real number considering
undernotification and delay in report is 27,000. Death has been notified
in 50% of cases (13,500). Cumulated no. of infections is calculated to
be between 67,000 to 108,000. Lower figure was calculated according to
prevalence among blood donors (0.05%) and highest considering a ratio of
infection: case of 4:1. Existing infected subjects for 1993 is
calculated subtracting the no. of cases from the no. of cumulated
infections (40,000 to 80,000) No. of existing cases during 1993 is
calculated subtracting the no. of deaths from the no. of cases (13,500).
New cases during 1993 was calculated as 4,000 cases, (annual progression
of infection to AIDS case: 10%), deaths during 1993 as 3,300 (annual
progression of AIDS case to death in 25%), and number of new infections
as 4,000 to 8,000 (rate of of infection: case as 1:1 or 1:2.) The
following model was constructed: TABULAR DATA, SEE ABSTRACT VOLUME.
CONCLUSION. This model allows to estimate the magnitude of the epidemic
in Mexico to guide control measures and health policies.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY Human HIV
Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY Mexico/EPIDEMIOLOGY Prevalence MEETING
ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).